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ACCA F5知识点:Risk and uncertainty详解

2018-12-10 13:50:46| 合肥中公教育

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ACCA F5知识点:Risk and uncertainty详解

Possible outcomesProbability of each outcome

RiskKnownKnown

UncertaintyKnownUnknown

减少 uncertainty 的 research

Desk researchSecondary sourcesExisting data & available resource

Field researchprimary sourcesDirect contact with a targeted group

More expensive and time consuming

Focus groupPrimary sourcesSmall target groups typically

In‐depth conversation about a particular topic

l Sensitivity analysis 敏感性分析:将不确定因素放入考虑,比较 contribution 变动率, 对决策的影响。

*Each of the variables is analyzed in turn to see how much the original estimate can change before the original decision is reversed.

*The maximum possible change is often expressed as a percentage. 2/6=33.3%

Limitations 局限性

ü Only one variable can be tested at one time.每次只能测试一个变量

ü It does not quantify the probability of a variable.没有考虑变量变动的可能性

ü It does not have decision rule.没有特定的决策规定

l Simulation 模拟仿真

A model shows the effect of more than one variable changing at the one time.数学模型,多个变量,同时改变;一般由计算机生成,会告知各种数据产生的可能性。

It is often used in capital investment appraisal.经常用于资本市场投资评价

Limitations 局限性

ü Simulation is only for obtaining more information about the possible outcomes.只提供信息,但要自己做决定

ü Models can be very complex.模型很复杂

ü Probability distributions may not be available.有些可能性分布是无法实现的

l Expected value 期望值 = weighted average of all possible outcomes

EV=Σpx 其中 x 为产出,p 为产出对应的可能性

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